Market Update • October 2026

Irish Property Market Update 2027: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

By Team Lorraine Mulligan — Lucan & Celbridge

The Irish property market update 2027 shows prices still rising, but more slowly. National prices were up 5.5% in the year to July 2026, while asking-price growth has fallen to 3%. More homes are for sale, and interest rates are climbing. The outlook is steady, not spectacular, growth.

To begin with, this outlook brings together the latest CSO, Daft.ie, BPFI and ECB data published in September 2026. Then, we translate it into what it means for real buyers and sellers in Dublin, Lucan and Celbridge.

In short, the rapid price rises of recent years are over. However, a slower market is not a falling market. For well-prepared sellers and approved buyers, 2027 could be one of the more balanced years we have seen in a long time.

Where the Irish Property Market Stands Going Into 2027

In fact, every major data source now tells the same story: growth continues, but it has lost momentum. Here are the headline numbers as of late September 2026.

• National price growth: +5.5% in the year to July 2026 (CSO Residential Property Price Index).
• Dublin price growth: +4.4%, compared with +6.4% outside Dublin (CSO).
• Median sale prices: €399,999 nationally, €500,000 in Dublin and €450,000 in Kildare (CSO, 12 months to July 2026).
• Average asking price: just under €445,000 nationally, up only 3% year-on-year (Daft.ie Q3 2026).
• Dublin three-bed semi: €635,000 asking, up 2.7% (Daft.ie Q3 2026).
• Homes for sale: about 13,800 second-hand homes on 1 September, up 12.5% on a year earlier (Daft.ie).

Bidding Wars Are Cooling

Above all, the most telling change is at the negotiating table. According to Daft.ie, buyers were bidding 6–7% above the asking price not long ago. However, that premium has now fallen to 2–3%.

For sellers, therefore, this matters more than any headline percentage. The days of listing low and relying on a bidding war to “find the price” are fading.

Irish House Prices 2027: What Is Driving the Outlook?

Four forces will shape Irish house prices in 2027. Some push prices up; on the other hand, others hold them back.

On 10 September 2026, the ECB raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, lifting its deposit rate to 2.5%. In particular, it cited inflation above 3% and oil prices pushed above $100 a barrel by conflict in the Middle East.

Moreover, further rises are possible. As a result, tracker and variable mortgage holders pay more, and buyers’ borrowing power shrinks.

Despite higher rates, mortgage demand remains remarkably firm. For instance, BPFI figures show 5,083 mortgage approvals worth €1.7 billion in August 2026, up 15.3% year-on-year. It was the strongest August since records began in 2011.

In addition, first-time buyers make up almost 60% of approvals. Over the 12 months to August, lenders approved 55,850 mortgages worth €18.1 billion — the first time that total has passed €18 billion.

First of all, new home completions reached 16,679 in the first half of 2026, up 10.8% year-on-year. Furthermore, full-year 2026 completions are expected to land between 36,000 and 40,000 units, and AIB projects around 41,000 in 2027.

Meanwhile, second-hand stock is up 12.5%. More choice for buyers naturally means less upward pressure on price.

Next, Budget 2027 is due on 6 October 2026. Proposals to raise the Help to Buy maximum from €30,000 to €50,000, and to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers, have both met resistance from the Department of Finance.

Any change to Help to Buy or the First Home Scheme would directly affect demand for new homes, particularly among first-time buyers in commuter areas like Celbridge.

Irish Property Market Outlook: Key Numbers Compared

The table below sets out the latest data and what we expect in 2027.

Sources: CSO RPPI July 2026; Daft.ie Q3 2026 Sales Report; BPFI Mortgage Approvals August 2026; ECB; AIB. The 2027 column reflects Team Lorraine Mulligan’s interpretation of current data, not an official forecast.

Dublin, Lucan and Celbridge: A Tale of Two Speeds

Overall, Dublin has cooled faster than the rest of the country. Its annual growth of 4.4% now trails the 6.4% recorded outside the capital. Daft.ie economist Ronan Lyons also noted that sales of new and second-hand homes fell in Dublin — a clear sign of softer demand.

Where Government Schemes Fit In

Help to Buy only applies to new-build homes, and only up to a €500,000 purchase price. So it mainly supports demand for new developments in and around Lucan and Celbridge, rather than second-hand homes.

The First Home Scheme also supports first-time buyers of new homes, with a price ceiling set for each council area. In Kildare, that ceiling is €475,000 for houses and apartments. As a result, new homes priced just under these limits will stay in high demand through 2027.

What This Means If You Are Selling in 2027

A slower market rewards preparation and punishes guesswork. Follow these steps if you plan to sell in late 2026 or 2027.

• Price to today’s evidence, not last year’s. After all, comparable sales from 2025 will overstate the market as growth slows.
• Expect offers near the asking price. With bidding premiums at 2–3%, set a realistic figure from day one.
• Improve your BER where it makes sense. This is because new A-rated homes are your direct competition as supply grows.
• Get your paperwork ready early. Title deeds, BER cert, LPT receipts and planning documents speed up the move from sale agreed to closing.
• Consider timing around rates. Each ECB rise reduces what buyers can borrow, so waiting for “a better market” may backfire.
• Watch the first three weeks closely. If viewings are low, a prompt price review beats a long, stale listing.

What This Means If You Are Buying in 2027

In general, buyers have more choice now than at any time in recent years. Stock is up, bidding wars are calmer, and some sellers are more open to negotiation. However, rising rates cut both ways. Use these steps to buy with confidence.

• Get mortgage approval in principle early. Sellers and agents take approved buyers more seriously; in addition, it shows you exactly what you can spend.
• Stress-test your repayments. Check how a further 0.25% or 0.5% rate rise would change your monthly payment before you bid.
• Check your scheme eligibility. If you are a first-time buyer, find out whether Help to Buy (new builds only) or the First Home Scheme applies, and check the price ceiling in your council area.
• Use your negotiating room. With bids now closer to the asking price, an evidence-based offer on a home that has been listed for a few weeks is reasonable.
• Compare new-build and second-hand carefully. New builds offer better BER ratings and scheme support; second-hand homes often offer larger gardens, established areas and faster move-in dates.
• Trading up? Sell and buy in step. Agree your sale timeline with your agent early, so you are not caught between two markets while rates rise.

The Bottom Line for 2027

The market is moving from frenzy to balance. Prices are still rising, but more slowly. Meanwhile, stock is growing, bidding premiums have shrunk, and interest rates are heading up rather than down.

In other words, for sellers, accurate pricing and strong presentation matter more than ever. For buyers, it means more choice — but less time to wait if rates keep climbing. Locally, Celbridge and North Kildare look set to outperform the wider Dublin market.

Frequently Asked Questions